Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 19.995543 22.788857 25.800738 29.285869 33.203640 37.467734 42.456362
2024-12-22 15.959665 19.755513 24.162851 29.642964 36.258096 43.968555 53.619205
2024-12-29 13.751632 17.948220 23.056366 29.703287 38.092874 48.296377 61.609525
2025-01-05 12.468880 17.047961 22.856315 30.718634 41.031392 54.039243 71.623308
2025-01-12 10.981824 15.649460 21.790893 30.398866 42.077372 57.283847 78.482297
2025-01-19 9.342864 13.847614 19.983604 28.870758 41.315307 58.006516 81.948413
2025-01-26 8.703073 13.349225 19.871284 29.589658 43.573826 62.812659 91.089893
2025-02-02 8.170894 12.940412 19.825905 30.359398 45.902216 67.790583 100.688604
2025-02-09 7.451063 12.175970 19.186285 30.188805 46.823847 70.784356 107.578852
2025-02-16 6.759345 11.385142 18.431795 29.766523 47.307581 73.121579 113.579684
2025-02-23 6.284843 10.889834 18.079421 29.911202 48.620493 76.704731 121.555210
2025-03-02 5.892727 10.490101 17.837860 30.194926 50.137396 80.637339 130.213357
2025-03-09 5.489936 10.048072 17.509981 30.339857 51.479519 84.429084 138.952179
2025-03-16 5.052738 9.508794 16.980698 30.114320 52.205161 87.289662 146.378928
2025-03-23 4.750199 9.174986 16.762283 30.375027 53.713223 91.426972 155.985412
2025-03-30 4.593690 9.088591 16.956764 31.342152 56.440607 97.646886 169.237597
2025-04-06 4.246619 8.619837 16.444675 31.039534 56.978830 100.282762 176.699818
2025-04-13 3.744952 7.814229 15.268845 29.474067 55.224665 98.985131 177.497598
2025-04-20 3.613882 7.712745 15.367230 30.209448 57.549183 104.683240 190.385960
2025-04-27 3.497371 7.629410 15.490907 30.993237 59.993387 110.686557 204.050909
2025-05-04 3.267859 7.297694 15.118617 30.819639 60.676948 113.638698 212.512736
2025-05-11 3.026676 6.920635 14.630454 30.389072 60.851524 115.682680 219.438657
2025-05-18 2.869785 6.707652 14.448712 30.536590 62.110107 119.711833 230.072409